LG, the leader in professional baseball, defeated 5th place KIA 12-2 in a visit to Gwangju on the 8th.
With this victory, LG took the lead with 70 wins (2 draws, 44 losses).
In 25 of the 33 seasons (75.8%) in which the postseason was conducted in a ‘step-like’ manner, the team with 70 wins won a direct ticket to the Korean Series.
Looking at the current rankings, it can be said that the probability of LG going directly to the Korean Series this year is higher than this ratio.
If LG ends the season with its current winning percentage (0.614), second place KT must record at least 23 wins and 2 losses (winning percentage 0.920) in the remaining 25 games.
0Calculating by the same standard, 3rd place NC must have 27 wins and 3 losses (win rate 0.900), and 4th place SSG must have 27 wins and 1 loss (win rate 0.965) to surpass LG. 지울프-토토
Even if LG just ‘maintains the status quo’, it is virtually impossible for a lower-ranking team to surpass LG.
According to psodds.com, a site that predicts season performance through Monte Carlo simulation, the probability that LG will advance directly to the Korean Series is 95.8%.
In 1990 and 1994, when LG reached 70 wins, it won the regular league and Korean Series combined championships.
However, in 2013, even though they became the first team to record 70 wins, they only finished in second place and were eliminated from the playoffs.
However, in 2013, even when LG reached 70 wins first, it was behind Samsung (0.591), which had 68 wins, in winning percentage (0.588).
According to psodds.com, Samsung (49.1%) had a higher probability of going directly to the Korean Series than LG (38.5%).
2nd place KT defeated 4th place SSG 16-7 in Suwon’s home game that day, but it is still too early to guarantee a direct advance to the playoffs.
This is because 3rd place NC also achieved a 4-3 comeback victory over Lotte in their home game in Changwon and recorded 4 consecutive wins, maintaining the 1.5 game gap.
Since NC will play back-to-back games (double headers) on the 9th, KT and NC may swap places depending on the results.
On the other hand, SSG, ranked 4th, fell into a 3-game losing streak with today’s loss, and is getting further and further away from going directly to the playoffs.
Doosan, ranked 6th, maintained its hopes of advancing to the postseason by winning a walk-off victory over Samsung in its home game in Jamsil that day and chasing KIA by two games.
In Gocheok, where 9th place Hanwha and lowest place Kiwoom faced each other, Hanwha won 6-5 after a close match in the 12th overtime.
Hanwha recorded a winning percentage of 0.431 (47 wins, 6 draws, 62 losses)
dropping Samsung (0.427 winning percentage, 50 wins, 1 draw, 67 losses) to 9th place and becoming 8th.
A total of 9 games will be held on September 9th. This is because double headers will be held in all four stadiums except Suwon.